In his opening pitch for re-election, Anthony Albanese said: “We don’t need to copy from any other nation to make Australia even better and stronger. We only need to trust in our values and back our people.”

It was Albanese’s first, and I suspect not the last, attempt to evoke the image of Donald Trump and the chaos he is wreaking in the US and imply, but not directly say, that Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is attempting to borrow the same ideas and tactics here.

Asked if he was referring to Trump, Albanese said people would “make their own judgements”.

“But people will have a look at the mass sackings of public servants,” he said, referring to Dutton’s promise to cull the Commonwealth public service by 41,000.

In response, Dutton accused Albanese of starting a “sledge-a-thon” over Trump.

The Trump bump

There’s a reason Albanese wants to handcuff Dutton to Trump and a reason why Dutton sees it as a smear. Around the world, a new phenomenon is emerging called the Trump bump — incumbents that talk tough on Trump and lean into their own country’s sense of national pride are seeing political dividends. While incumbency was political cryptonite during the inflation crisis, Trump is giving incumbents their mojo back.

As Donald Trump goads the US’ partners and allies into a worldwide fight, there are signs Americans are losing faith in the president they hoped would bring them boomtimes.

Trump is particularly toxic in Australia with younger voters, too. The 2025 federal election will be the first election where gen Z and millennials will outnumber boomers in every state and territory, dramatically changing the way political parties campaign and target voters.

A study of voters aged 18-44, prepared for the John Curtin Research Centre by the RedBridge Group in March and shared exclusively with this column, is an eye-opener into what young voters really think on a range of issues.

The survey finds that most gen Z and millennials in Australia do not want a leader like Trump, but those with a radical right political disposition do.

The majority of Australian voters aged 18-44 say Australia would not benefit from a leader like Trump. Just 12 per cent say Australia would definitely benefit and 11 per cent say it probably would, coming to a total of 23 per cent on the yes side. Conversely, almost half (48 per cent) say Australia would definitely not benefit from a leader like Trump, and another 10 per cent say it probably would not (a total of 58 per cent on the side of no). Across all the social, economic and political groups analysed in this study, a plurality in almost every single group said that Australia would not benefit from a leader like Trump.

Even among Coalition voters aged 18-44, a plurality demurred on a Trump-like leader (39 per cent said no, 36 per cent said yes). Indeed, even among the most populist quintile, a leader like Trump was not seen as beneficial for Australia (-28 per cent net yes).

Young people reject business as usual

Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre, said he commissioned Redbridge to look at gen Y and gen Z voters to understand their priorities and was not surprised by their attraction to anti-establishment politics.

“These cohorts have known little else other than economic flux, uncertainty and growing inequality since they entered the workforce, having been buffeted by the short- and long-term effects of the global financial crisis with a decade plus of anaemic growth, stagnant real wages and the housing affordability and supply crisis, all exacerbated by COVID,” Dyrenfurth says.

“Overseas polls and election results have shown that young people are attracted to anti-establishment politics, from Argentina to Trump and left-wing strongholds like Sweden, and on the left expressed by fleeting support for [Bernie] Sanders and [Jeremy] Corbyn.

“Now we know that the rage and resentment they feel towards an economic system that they think is gamed against their generation — with much justification — is not a case of Australian exceptionalism.”

Dyrenfurth notes this trend was most pronounced with young men, the “somewhat radical right quintile” spikes notably for men in their mid-to-late 20s.

“Labor must keep a close eye on this trend in coming years,” he says.

In the survey, Dutton is more liked than Trump, less trusted than Albanese and scores a lower rating than US populist right podcaster Joe Rogan.

The only two people in the list of names shown to respondents that have overall net positive trust scores are two former centre-left politicians: Barack Obama (+12) and former NZ prime minister Jacinda Ardern. For Labor, there is danger with the Greens’ Max Chandler-Mather and Adam Bandt scoring the most trust from these voters.

Younger generations both progressive and conservative

The research shows that younger voters are not straightforwardly right-wing or left-wing or conservative or progressive.

“They have highly progressive attitudes towards gender roles and issues like the death penalty,” Dyrenfurth says.

The most fascinating part of the findings is views on immigration. It shows that gen Z and millennial voters are generally not confident that governments in Australia will take actions that align with their interests and concerns on the policy areas they believe are most important, indicating widespread disillusionment with politics and the role of the state.

Voters were least confident about: immigration (-42 per cent net confidence), economic inequality (-40), housing affordability (-36), crime and disorder (-35) and cost of living (-30).

Dyrenfurth says that when understood in terms of housing availability and simple demand and supply or wage suppression, it makes sense to see scepticism.

“It is one thing to support immigration in principle but another when, unchecked, it smashes living standards, most importantly housing affordability,” he says.

“That these generations are defined by their stress on material issues is confirmed by views on the salience of climate change, cost of living, the economy and housing.”